Gold-Silver Ratio at 74: Is Silver Undervalued?

The gold-silver ratio, the number of ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold, stands near 74 today, up from about 44 at the end of January. Gold trades near $4,020 and silver near $54, so silver has fallen roughly 55 percent from its January record of about $121 while gold has fallen about 28 percent from its own. A ratio in the mid-70s is above the post-1971 average of roughly 60 and about even with the twenty-year average near 70, which by the simplest reading makes silver cheap relative to gold again. The last two times the ratio spiked, in March 2020 and April 2025, silver went on to more than double. The time before that, in 1991, it did not. Here is how to read the number, what has actually followed high readings, and what it means for a retirement saver deciding between the two metals.

Key Takeaways

The gold-silver ratio is about 74 on October 26, 2026, versus roughly 44 on January 26, the lowest reading since 2011. It crossed back above 70 on October 13.
Silver trades near $54, down about 10 percent on the month and roughly 55 percent below its January 2026 record near $121, yet still about 16 percent higher than a year ago.
After the ratio peaked above 125 in March 2020, silver rose from under $12 to almost $30 in five months. After it peaked near 105 in April 2025, silver rose from under $28 to $121 in nine months. After the 1991 peak near 100, silver stayed low for years.
The silver market is heading for its sixth straight annual supply deficit, about 46 million ounces in 2026, with coin and bar demand projected up 18 percent, per Metals Focus for the Silver Institute.
Metals pay no dividend or interest and their value moves. This is market commentary, not financial advice.

What Is the Gold-Silver Ratio Today?

Divide the gold price by the silver price. With gold near $4,020 and silver near $54.24 on October 26, the ratio is about 74. That means one ounce of gold buys about 74 ounces of silver.

For context, the ratio has ranged from about 15 to above 125 over the past half century. Congress fixed it at 15 to 1 in the Coinage Act of 1792, roughly matching how much more common silver is than gold in the earth's crust, about 17 to 1. It fell to about 17 in January 1980 when silver approached $50, and to about 31 in April 2011 when silver last approached $50. It hit an all-time high above 125 on March 18, 2020, when silver fell under $12 during the lockdowns, and it topped 100 again in April 2025.

Averages depend on the window. Since the dollar left gold in 1971 the mean has run near 60. Over the past twenty years it is closer to 70, and over the past several years, with the 2020 spike in the sample, closer to 80. Those are approximate figures from published long-run series and worth checking against a primary data source if you plan to trade on them. The practical point is that a reading in the mid-70s sits above the long-run average and at or slightly above the modern one. It is not an extreme, but it is the cheapest silver has been relative to gold since last November.

At USA Capital Gold, a precious metals dealer and IRA facilitator handling tax-free rollovers into physical gold and silver, we use the ratio for one purpose: deciding how to split a metals allocation between the two, not whether to own metals at all. For a full explanation of how the ratio is calculated and how to apply it, see our guide on how to use the gold-to-silver ratio.

Why Did the Ratio Jump From 44 to 74 in Nine Months?

Because silver fell much harder than gold.

In January 2026 both metals hit records. Gold reached about $5,600 and silver about $121. The ratio touched roughly 44, its lowest since 2011, after silver roughly quadrupled from its April 2025 low. That was the moment silver stopped being cheap relative to gold.

Since then the two have diverged. Gold is down about 28 percent from its record. Silver is down about 55 percent. The reason is what each metal is. Gold is a monetary asset: central banks buy it, and it holds up when rates rise because the buyers who matter most do not care about yield. Silver is a monetary asset with an industrial second job. About half of annual demand comes from solar panels, electronics, electrical contacts, and medical uses, and that half responds to the economy and to the price itself. When silver crossed $100, solar manufacturers moved faster to use less of it per panel. Metals Focus now expects photovoltaic silver demand to fall about 19 percent this year and total industrial demand to slip about 3 percent to roughly 640 million ounces.

Add the rate backdrop. The Fed raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, the 10-year Treasury yields above 5 percent, and the market prices better than 80 percent odds of another hike in December. Higher yields hurt both metals, but silver, with the smaller market and the leveraged speculative positioning that built up during the run to $121, took the bigger hit. That is the same amplitude that works in silver's favor on the way up. A ratio that moves from 44 to 74 in nine months is the trailing evidence of it.

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What Has Happened to Silver After the Ratio Peaked Before?

This is the question that matters, and the honest answer is: usually, but not always, silver has outperformed gold sharply afterward.

March 2020. The ratio spiked above 125, the highest ever recorded, with silver near $11.64. Over the next five months silver rose to $29.86, a gain of more than 150 percent, and the ratio was back near 70 by August 2020.

April 2025. The ratio topped 100 as silver fell about 21 percent in three sessions to a low near $27.54. Within nine months silver was at $121, a gain of more than 300 percent, and the ratio was 44.

1991. The ratio reached roughly 100 with silver near $3.60. Silver did not recover for years. A saver who swapped gold for silver on that signal waited most of a decade to come out ahead.

Three observations from those episodes. First, the ratio is a slow signal, not a timing tool: in 2020 and 2025 the turn came within weeks, but in 1991 it took years. Second, both recent reversals came after silver had been pushed down by a shock that had nothing to do with its supply, a pandemic and a tariff panic, and both reversed once the shock passed. Third, today's reading of 74 is nowhere near those peaks. The ratio is above average, not at an extreme, which argues for a measured tilt toward silver rather than a wholesale swap.

Is Silver Undervalued at $54?

Relative to gold, by the ratio, moderately. Relative to a year ago, no: silver is still up about 16 percent. Relative to its own supply picture, the case is stronger.

The Silver Institute's 2026 survey, prepared by Metals Focus, projects a market deficit of about 46 million ounces this year, the sixth consecutive annual shortfall. Mine supply is roughly flat, since about three-quarters of silver comes out of the ground as a by-product of copper, lead, and zinc mines that do not add capacity because silver is expensive. Recycling is at multi-year highs but cannot close the gap. Even with industrial demand slipping, coin and bar demand is projected to rise 18 percent to its highest since 2022, and exchange-traded funds are expected to absorb about 30 million ounces net.

Philip Newman, managing director of Metals Focus, put it this way in April: "You could see losses in the industrial sectors being mopped up by the retail investment." On whether that buying is exhausted: "I don't feel that it's saturating when you look at the levels of buying that we've seen."

That combination, six years of deficits and a price 55 percent below its high, is the setup that has historically preceded silver's sharpest runs. It does not say when. It says the metal is scarce and cheap relative to gold at the same time.

What Are Analysts Forecasting for Silver?

Published targets were cut after the summer, and they are worth reading as a range rather than a promise. As of late September, UBS carried $70 for December 2026, $75 through mid-2027, and $80 for September 2027. J.P. Morgan cut its 2026 average to about $70.60 and sees the fourth quarter near $63, with a 2027 average near $64. Earlier in the year Commerzbank had $90 by the end of 2026, though that call predates the pullback. On the ratio itself, J.P. Morgan has discussed a move toward 70 in the second half of this year and about 75 in 2027, which is roughly where it sits today.

Measure the most cautious of those against $54 and every one is above the current price. The most bullish bank scenario we have seen, from Bank of America, runs far higher if physical shortages intensify, but we would not build a plan around it. Forecasts are opinions with dates attached, and this year's were wrong in both directions.

Talk with a USA Capital Gold specialist about adding silver to an IRA. Call 1-888-263-8931.

How Does a Retirement Saver Use the Ratio?

Three rules we give clients.

Own both. Gold is the anchor: central banks hold it, it is less sensitive to the business cycle, and it fell half as much as silver this year. Silver is the acceleration: it has covered more ground than gold in every major upturn since 1971 and it is scarce by the industry's own numbers. A portfolio that holds only one gives up either stability or upside.

Let the ratio set the mix, not the decision. When the ratio is high, as it is now, tilt new purchases toward silver. When it is low, as it was in January at 44, tilt toward gold. Savers who followed that rule bought gold in January and are buying silver now. Neither purchase required predicting a top or a bottom.

Hold it in the right account. Physical gold and silver can sit inside a self-directed IRA. A direct rollover from a 401(k), traditional IRA, 403(b), or TSP into a precious metals IRA is not a taxable event and carries no early-withdrawal penalty when an approved custodian handles it. Silver coins and bars that meet the 99.9 percent purity standard, such as American Silver Eagles, qualify. Because silver is cheaper per ounce, a given dollar amount buys far more physical metal, which matters to savers who want weight in hand rather than a line on a statement.

The Bottom Line

The gold-silver ratio has risen from 44 to 74 since January because silver has fallen 55 percent from its record while gold has fallen 28 percent. A mid-70s reading is above the long-run average and the cheapest silver has been relative to gold in nearly a year. Twice in the past six years a spike in the ratio marked the start of a run in which silver more than doubled; once, in 1991, it did not. Underneath the price, the silver market is in its sixth straight year of deficit, coin and bar demand is rising, and the published bank targets all sit above $54. For a retirement saver, that is a case for tilting new metal purchases toward silver while keeping gold as the base.

Metals pay no dividend or interest and their value moves, so they belong as one part of a diversified retirement plan rather than a replacement for it. This is general information, not financial advice, and the right mix depends on your situation. To talk through adding physical gold and silver to a retirement account, call USA Capital Gold at 1-888-263-8931.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the gold-silver ratio today?

About 74 on October 26, 2026, with gold near $4,020 and silver near $54. It was roughly 44 on January 26, 2026, the lowest since 2011, and crossed back above 70 on October 13.

What does a high gold-silver ratio mean?

A high ratio means silver is cheap relative to gold. Historically, readings above the long-run average of about 60 have tended to precede periods when silver outperformed gold, though the timing has ranged from weeks (2020, 2025) to years (1991).

Why is silver down so much in 2026?

Silver fell about 55 percent from its January record near $121 to about $54. Rising Treasury yields and a Fed rate hike pressured all metals, industrial users cut silver content after the price crossed $100, and leveraged speculative positions from the run-up unwound. Silver is still about 16 percent higher than a year ago.

Is silver a better buy than gold right now?

By the ratio, silver is the cheaper metal relative to gold, which argues for tilting new purchases toward silver. Gold remains the more stable holding and fell half as much this year. Most savers hold both and let the ratio set the mix.

What is the historical average gold-silver ratio?

Roughly 60 since 1971 and closer to 70 over the past twenty years, with a range from about 15 to above 125. The ratio was fixed at 15 to 1 by the Coinage Act of 1792. These averages vary by data source and are worth verifying.

Is there a silver shortage in 2026?

The Silver Institute's 2026 survey projects a deficit of about 46 million ounces, the sixth consecutive year of shortfall, with flat mine supply and coin and bar demand up 18 percent.

Can I hold silver in an IRA?

Yes. A self-directed precious metals IRA can hold silver coins and bars that meet the 99.9 percent purity standard, including American Silver Eagles, stored in your name at an insured depository. A direct rollover from a 401(k) or IRA into one is not a taxable event when an approved custodian handles it. Call 1-888-263-8931 to see how it works.

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The Gold-Silver Ratio Just Went From 44 to 74 in Nine Months. Is Silver Undervalued Again?